Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy SILVER ETF TRADER +32.4% Annual Return (Compounded) since May 2, 2023 Hypothetical

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ares
(131145247)

Created by: ares_Systemtrading ares_Systemtrading
Started: 09/2020
Futures
Last trade: Today
Trading style: Futures Trend-following Short Term

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $100.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Buys when price goes up, and sells when price goes down, expecting price movements to continue. There are a number of different techniques and time-frames used, including moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders do not aim to forecast specific price levels; they simply jump on a trend and ride it. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Short Term
Category: Equity

Short Term

Makes short-term trades or bases analysis on short-term market movements.
40.8%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(14.1%)
Max Drawdown
565
Num Trades
35.9%
Win Trades
1.6 : 1
Profit Factor
70.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020                                                        (1.2%)+16.3%(1.7%)+0.3%+13.3%
2021(4.8%)(2.9%)+4.0%+1.4%+1.3%+8.4%+0.3%+10.6%+0.8%(2.6%)(3.9%)+5.0%+17.8%
2022+6.7%+5.4%+8.3%+14.0%+13.2%+2.2%(0.7%)+2.8%+2.2%(1%)(5.3%)+12.3%+76.4%
2023+2.9%(0.6%)(7.3%)+6.1%+3.9%+5.2%(6.2%)+8.3%(2.8%)(3.3%)+9.4%+2.4%+17.8%
2024+5.7%+5.3%(0.7%)+16.1%+2.0%+2.6%+4.5%+1.2%+1.7%+3.2%            +49.0%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 688 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
10/31/24 9:34 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 13 20289.00 10/31 10:52 20084.73 0.45%
Trade id #149915043
Max drawdown($442)
Time10/31/24 9:38
Quant open13
Worst price20306.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 $5,299
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.22
10/29/24 9:33 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 14 20457.20 10/29 9:43 20499.32 0.83%
Trade id #149873420
Max drawdown($827)
Time10/29/24 9:43
Quant open14
Worst price20486.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.83%
 ($1,192)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $13.16
10/25/24 9:32 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 12 20542.49 10/25 13:35 20533.32 0.32%
Trade id #149829757
Max drawdown($323)
Time10/25/24 13:35
Quant open12
Worst price20529.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 ($231)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $11.28
10/23/24 11:16 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 20342.80 10/23 13:04 20211.81 0.39%
Trade id #149807122
Max drawdown($384)
Time10/23/24 11:59
Quant open10
Worst price20362.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
 $2,611
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
10/23/24 10:08 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 20365.69 10/23 10:29 20414.72 1.11%
Trade id #149805377
Max drawdown($1,076)
Time10/23/24 10:29
Quant open10
Worst price20419.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.11%
 ($990)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
10/18/24 11:31 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 10 20527.39 10/18 11:42 20480.58 1.11%
Trade id #149695846
Max drawdown($1,097)
Time10/18/24 11:42
Quant open10
Worst price20472.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.11%
 ($945)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
10/16/24 9:47 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 6 20248.89 10/16 10:24 20330.04 1.01%
Trade id #149673123
Max drawdown($1,009)
Time10/16/24 10:24
Quant open6
Worst price20333.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.01%
 ($980)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.64
10/14/24 9:35 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 12 20599.57 10/14 10:51 20592.88 0.49%
Trade id #149651609
Max drawdown($493)
Time10/14/24 9:40
Quant open12
Worst price20579.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
 ($172)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $11.28
10/8/24 10:00 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 9 20174.03 10/8 13:09 20167.75 0.33%
Trade id #149604982
Max drawdown($333)
Time10/8/24 10:22
Quant open9
Worst price20155.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
 ($121)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
9/17/24 9:55 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 10 19738.80 9/17 10:02 19785.46 0.79%
Trade id #149418397
Max drawdown($799)
Time9/17/24 10:02
Quant open10
Worst price19778.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
 ($942)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
9/16/24 10:36 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 11 19554.80 9/16 10:41 19604.65 1.3%
Trade id #149404558
Max drawdown($1,329)
Time9/16/24 10:41
Quant open11
Worst price19615.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.30%
 ($1,107)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.34
9/16/24 9:36 @MNQZ4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 13 19578.80 9/16 9:38 19621.99 1.09%
Trade id #149400791
Max drawdown($1,123)
Time9/16/24 9:38
Quant open13
Worst price19622.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.09%
 ($1,135)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.22
9/11/24 9:41 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 8 18840.80 9/11 12:03 18829.53 0.2%
Trade id #149355573
Max drawdown($211)
Time9/11/24 9:44
Quant open8
Worst price18854.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 $172
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.52
9/10/24 12:06 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 9 18623.67 9/10 12:40 18683.01 1.09%
Trade id #149340564
Max drawdown($1,135)
Time9/10/24 12:40
Quant open9
Worst price18686.80
Drawdown as % of equity-1.09%
 ($1,076)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
9/10/24 10:52 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 9 18703.12 9/10 11:15 18759.70 1.07%
Trade id #149338052
Max drawdown($1,122)
Time9/10/24 11:15
Quant open9
Worst price18765.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.07%
 ($1,026)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
9/3/24 9:37 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 9 19405.00 9/3 15:31 19018.50 0.28%
Trade id #149204999
Max drawdown($274)
Time9/3/24 9:49
Quant open9
Worst price19420.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 $6,949
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
8/30/24 11:01 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 7 19474.20 8/30 15:23 19547.17 1.07%
Trade id #149135072
Max drawdown($1,054)
Time8/30/24 15:23
Quant open7
Worst price19549.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.07%
 ($1,029)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.58
8/29/24 9:35 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 6 19597.66 8/29 14:28 19518.87 1.35%
Trade id #149094723
Max drawdown($1,348)
Time8/29/24 14:28
Quant open6
Worst price19485.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.35%
 ($952)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.64
8/23/24 10:24 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 5 19879.81 8/23 10:46 19777.58 1.17%
Trade id #149017615
Max drawdown($1,183)
Time8/23/24 10:46
Quant open5
Worst price19761.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.17%
 ($1,027)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.70
8/23/24 10:10 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 5 19880.24 8/23 10:10 19876.09 0.04%
Trade id #149017168
Max drawdown($41)
Time8/23/24 10:06
Quant open5
Worst price19876.10
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 ($46)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.70
8/21/24 10:36 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 13 19891.31 8/21 10:50 19876.44 0.83%
Trade id #148982235
Max drawdown($853)
Time8/21/24 10:50
Quant open13
Worst price19858.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.83%
 ($399)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.22
8/21/24 10:19 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 13 19893.09 8/21 10:32 19844.34 1.48%
Trade id #148981954
Max drawdown($1,529)
Time8/21/24 10:32
Quant open13
Worst price19834.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.48%
 ($1,279)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.22
8/21/24 10:00 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 13 19903.30 8/21 10:15 19850.51 1.64%
Trade id #148981450
Max drawdown($1,717)
Time8/21/24 10:15
Quant open13
Worst price19837.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.64%
 ($1,385)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.22
8/15/24 9:55 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 9 19430.03 8/15 15:55 19575.03 0.43%
Trade id #148925230
Max drawdown($441)
Time8/15/24 10:05
Quant open9
Worst price19405.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.43%
 $2,602
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
8/14/24 10:18 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 5 18997.50 8/14 11:17 19091.35 0.94%
Trade id #148913937
Max drawdown($955)
Time8/14/24 11:17
Quant open5
Worst price19093.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
 ($943)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.70
8/13/24 9:45 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 10 18885.84 8/13 15:55 19090.70 0.61%
Trade id #148902163
Max drawdown($601)
Time8/13/24 10:33
Quant open10
Worst price18855.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 $4,088
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
8/13/24 9:34 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 10 18887.24 8/13 9:42 18830.74 1.23%
Trade id #148901843
Max drawdown($1,224)
Time8/13/24 9:42
Quant open10
Worst price18826.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.23%
 ($1,139)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
8/12/24 9:45 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 9 18556.94 8/12 10:07 18625.22 1.1%
Trade id #148890706
Max drawdown($1,108)
Time8/12/24 10:07
Quant open9
Worst price18618.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.10%
 ($1,237)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.46
8/8/24 10:29 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 4 18380.31 8/8 15:55 18474.78 0.45%
Trade id #148866688
Max drawdown($454)
Time8/8/24 11:17
Quant open4
Worst price18323.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 $752
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.76
8/7/24 12:06 @MNQU4 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 4 18322.20 8/7 15:55 17969.84 0.67%
Trade id #148858185
Max drawdown($658)
Time8/7/24 12:28
Quant open4
Worst price18404.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.67%
 $2,815
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.76
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    9/12/2020
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    1510.14
  • Age
    50 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    565
  • # Profitable
    203
  • % Profitable
    35.90%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.2 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    14.1%
  • drawdown period
    Oct 05, 2021 - Nov 26, 2021
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    40.8%
  • Avg win
    $1,150
  • Avg loss
    $407.87
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $110,834
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $110,834
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.58:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.67
  • Sortino Ratio
    3.34
  • Calmar Ratio
    4.507
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    242.10%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.00880
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    70.77%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    40.8%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    4.00%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.03%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.408%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    43.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    7.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    1.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    994
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    999
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    999
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    997
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $408
  • Avg Win
    $1,150
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $147,648.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    50
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $233,480.000
  • # Winners
    203
  • Num Months Winners
    35
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    10451900
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    362
  • % Winners
    35.9%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    134.00
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    2.23
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    3.27
  • Daily leverage (max)
    12.59
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.09
  • Beta
    -0.01
  • Treynor Index
    -10.26
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.82
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    8.898
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.149
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -0.899
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.112
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.38064
  • SD
    0.17435
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.18318
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.14572
  • df
    44.00000
  • t
    4.22772
  • p
    0.00006
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.06321
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.28246
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.03876
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.25269
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.91481
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.57315
  • Upside part of mean
    0.47192
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09129
  • Upside SD
    0.19689
  • Downside SD
    0.05505
  • N nonnegative terms
    32.00000
  • N negative terms
    13.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    45.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12932
  • Mean of criterion
    0.38064
  • SD of predictor
    0.14676
  • SD of criterion
    0.17435
  • Covariance
    -0.00459
  • r
    -0.17934
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.21306
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.40819
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03010
  • DF error
    43.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.19542
  • p(b)
    0.88076
  • t(a)
    4.41214
  • p(a)
    0.00003
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.57249
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14638
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.22162
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.59476
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.78654
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.40819
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.36003
  • SD
    0.16807
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.14220
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.10544
  • df
    44.00000
  • t
    4.14835
  • p
    0.00008
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.02583
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.23814
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.00186
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.20902
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.43000
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.08418
  • Upside part of mean
    0.45265
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09262
  • Upside SD
    0.18784
  • Downside SD
    0.05599
  • N nonnegative terms
    32.00000
  • N negative terms
    13.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    45.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11775
  • Mean of criterion
    0.36003
  • SD of predictor
    0.14828
  • SD of criterion
    0.16807
  • Covariance
    -0.00428
  • r
    -0.17157
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.19445
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.38293
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02805
  • DF error
    43.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.14197
  • p(b)
    0.87011
  • t(a)
    4.31302
  • p(a)
    0.00005
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.53786
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14895
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.20388
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.56198
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.85149
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.38293
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04858
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06752
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01197
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02605
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    45.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95465
  • Quartile 1
    0.98932
  • Median
    1.03262
  • Quartile 3
    1.07921
  • Maximum
    1.13800
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97474
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00988
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.05555
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.10140
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08989
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.34024
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02791
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.04921
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.31545
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01873
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02786
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    9.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01093
  • Quartile 1
    0.01956
  • Median
    0.03309
  • Quartile 3
    0.04472
  • Maximum
    0.06957
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01437
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03176
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.04427
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05746
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02516
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.16099
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06191
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.07735
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    4.27803
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.15453
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.87559
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.47394
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    6.81203
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    8.24795
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    7.01881
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.37292
  • SD
    0.16334
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.28308
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.28135
  • df
    993.00000
  • t
    4.44696
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.27129
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.29378
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.27012
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.29259
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.60508
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.31800
  • Upside part of mean
    0.99750
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.62458
  • Upside SD
    0.14362
  • Downside SD
    0.08098
  • N nonnegative terms
    315.00000
  • N negative terms
    679.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    994.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12480
  • Mean of criterion
    0.37292
  • SD of predictor
    0.17289
  • SD of criterion
    0.16334
  • Covariance
    -0.00026
  • r
    -0.00921
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00870
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.37400
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02670
  • DF error
    992.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.29013
  • p(b)
    0.61411
  • t(a)
    4.45343
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.06756
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05016
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.20920
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.53880
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -42.85220
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.37400
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.35946
  • SD
    0.16190
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.22016
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.21849
  • df
    993.00000
  • t
    4.32442
  • p
    0.00001
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.20864
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.23060
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.20752
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.22945
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.40727
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.10510
  • Upside part of mean
    0.98728
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.62783
  • Upside SD
    0.14152
  • Downside SD
    0.08156
  • N nonnegative terms
    315.00000
  • N negative terms
    679.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    994.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10981
  • Mean of criterion
    0.35946
  • SD of predictor
    0.17310
  • SD of criterion
    0.16190
  • Covariance
    -0.00027
  • r
    -0.00976
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00913
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.36046
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02624
  • DF error
    992.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.30738
  • p(b)
    0.62069
  • t(a)
    4.33117
  • p(a)
    0.00001
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.06740
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04915
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.19714
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.52377
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -39.38050
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.36046
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01497
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01907
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00663
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01263
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    994.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97036
  • Quartile 1
    0.99647
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00425
  • Maximum
    1.07171
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99147
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99930
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00057
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01476
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00778
  • Number outliers low
    23.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02314
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97996
  • Number of outliers high
    86.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08652
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02516
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.12177
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00825
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01192
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.07029
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00802
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01047
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    56.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00013
  • Quartile 1
    0.00564
  • Median
    0.01834
  • Quartile 3
    0.03594
  • Maximum
    0.10497
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00278
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01023
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02613
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.06564
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03030
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05357
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.09879
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.87937
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07029
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.07566
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.60433
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07203
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.08007
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.88235
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.47309
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.50671
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    7.20681
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    24.80900
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.24779
  • SD
    0.14927
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.66003
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.65044
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.17382
  • p
    0.44879
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.12225
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.43603
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.12862
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.42950
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.04671
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.51790
  • Upside part of mean
    0.85542
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.60763
  • Upside SD
    0.12542
  • Downside SD
    0.08133
  • N nonnegative terms
    36.00000
  • N negative terms
    95.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23737
  • Mean of criterion
    0.24779
  • SD of predictor
    0.13087
  • SD of criterion
    0.14927
  • Covariance
    -0.00215
  • r
    -0.11012
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.12560
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.27760
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02218
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.25838
  • p(b)
    0.56996
  • t(a)
    1.30974
  • p(a)
    0.42723
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.32307
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.07188
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.14175
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.69695
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.97289
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.27760
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.23668
  • SD
    0.14839
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.59504
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.58582
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.12786
  • p
    0.45078
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.18657
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.37059
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.19269
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.36432
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.89093
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.35270
  • Upside part of mean
    0.84758
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.61090
  • Upside SD
    0.12394
  • Downside SD
    0.08187
  • N nonnegative terms
    36.00000
  • N negative terms
    95.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22872
  • Mean of criterion
    0.23668
  • SD of predictor
    0.13114
  • SD of criterion
    0.14839
  • Covariance
    -0.00216
  • r
    -0.11117
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.12579
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.26545
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02192
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.27057
  • p(b)
    0.57063
  • t(a)
    1.26060
  • p(a)
    0.42992
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01500
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.32168
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.07009
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15118
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.68209
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.88151
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.26545
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01408
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01784
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00667
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01282
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98108
  • Quartile 1
    0.99775
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00254
  • Maximum
    1.03882
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99131
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99979
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00017
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01291
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00479
  • Number outliers low
    12.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.09160
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98591
  • Number of outliers high
    19.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14504
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01825
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.51878
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00703
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00826
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.61526
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00825
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00956
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00020
  • Quartile 1
    0.00481
  • Median
    0.01949
  • Quartile 3
    0.02198
  • Maximum
    0.06436
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00261
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01006
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02115
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.04704
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01717
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.18182
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.05931
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -62.71600
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.04457
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.65510
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.09175
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.09246
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -337627000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    52
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.28289
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.30290
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.70641
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    6.43889
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    16.97900

Strategy Description

With the increased number of subscribers and so AUM the maximum number of tradable contracts decreased. To prevent an event where this number is lower than ares needs I have limited the number of subscribers.

System ares trades MNQ Future long and short. Risk per trade is 1% of equity. No overnight. Always with stop.
The system is backtested and is 100% automated.
For deeper information of the backtest results you can pm me.
TOS not possible because of the Tax Regulations for derivatives in Germany.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2020-09-12
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 0.1%
Rank # 
#1
# Trades
565
# Profitable
203
% Profitable
35.9%
Correlation S&P500
-0.009
Sharpe Ratio
1.67
Sortino Ratio
3.34
Beta
-0.01
Alpha
0.09
Leverage
3.27 Average
12.59 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.